Month: June 2017

The 1^st edition of the Balkans & Black Sea Cooperation Forum held in Serres-Greece on May 25^th & 26^th 2017, has been recognized as one of the most forward thinking vehicles for economic growth and sustainable development among the countries of the Balkans and the wider Black Sea region. The Forum has been proven to be a new think-tank at the cross section of public & business sectors, outlining current situation, quoting political indicators, navigating to growth and cooperation and monitoring the perspectives and SDGs towards 2030 of that region.

Balkans & Black Sea Cooperation Forum 2017 brought together more than 300 delegates from International Institutions & Organizations, public officials, diplomats, businesses, entrepreneurs and academia, gaining inside information from 42 International quality and content-driven panelists (70% originating outside hosting country Greece) equally representing the Public, Institutional and Business sectors, who contributed to dialogue and debates fostering cross‐border cooperation, enhancing bilateral and multilateral relations, promoting best practices and business opportunities.

With regards to the regional cooperation, a Forum declaration on “Cultural Tourism, a key to Sustainable Development” was issued under the auspices of BSEC, CPMR, EBF, the support of UNWTO and UNESCO, and the contribution of Geo Routes Cultural Institute. The declaration is about developing a conceptual tourist model, seeking the interconnectivity of destinationswhich will be offering long-haul travelers the possibility at gaining explore & experience opportunities in a region of diversities and rich cultural heritage.

Furthermore the Forum highlighted Serres as new international conference destination, gave floor for the expansion of networking opportunities because of the consecutive after-conference social activities, offered a Business HUB open to the public where exhibitors strengthened their outreach to the local society and the visitors of Serres, whilst CPMR/Balkan & Black Sea Commission General Assembly was organized prior to Forum’s inauguration.

Photo material from BBSF2017 Sessions is here, whilst those of Social Activities here. A Reports Page will be soon available, at which Speaker’s presentations & videos, also the conclusions of Moderators will be listed on Forums’ official website.

Building further on 2017 positive outcome, Forum is getting prepared for next years’ edition. Balkans & Black Sea Cooperation Forum 2018 Sessions will keep covering topics of intra-regional interest such as:

1. EU Balkans & Black Sea Perspectives and SDGs towards 2030
2. Economy, Growth & Development
3. Maritime-Transportation-Infrastructures & Hubs
4. Roads of Energy
5. Women in leadership
6. Agriculture, Environment & Use of sources
7. Cultural & Sustainable Tourism
8. Healthcare Industries (new session)
9. Higher Education, Business Innovation (new session)

Balkans & Black Sea Cooperation Forum roadmap towards 2018 is as following:

• September 2017, 82^nd Thessaloniki International Fair (TIF): Exhibiting at TIF about to promoting its Partners and Sponsors, also delivering a Session to highlight 2017 conclusions and announcing 2018 Hosting City
• October 2017-April 2018: Stakeholders, panels, sponsors, partners arrangements
• May 2018: Balkans & Black Sea Cooperation Forum 2^nd edition will be going live

States of the Region 2018 Balkans & Black Sea Cooperation Forum© is concerned (in alphabetical order):  Albania – Armenia – Azerbaijan – Bosnia/Herzegovina – Bulgaria – Croatia – Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia – Georgia – Greece – Moldova – Montenegro –  Kazakhstan (new entry) – Romania – Russian Federation – Serbia – Slovenia – Turkey – Ukraine.

On 24-26 May 2017, the first Balkans and Black Sea Cooperation Forum took place in Serres, Greece. The forum aims to strengthen cooperation throughout this region in various regards, including in terms of transport and infrastructure. One of the topics debated at the forum related to the role of China and its Belt and Road (also known as ‘One Belt, One Road’ or OBOR) initiative to build a modern-day silk road.

It is in the Balkans and Black Sea region that the contemporary equivalents of the silk road on land (via Central Asia) and the maritime silk road (via the Indian Ocean and the eastern Mediterranean Sea) meet each other and connect to Europe. A land route via the Black Sea region would provide China with a transport corridor to Europe that avoids areas that are part of, or militarily controlled by, Russia or the United States. It is to China’s strategic benefit if it succeeds in decreasing its dependence on trade routes that can easily be disrupted by other great powers. The greatest relevance of the Balkans peninsula at this time relates to the port of Piraeus in Greece, which is the main Mediterranean base of China’s largest shipping company, COSCO Shipping. China’s involvement in Piraeus may develop into a greater Chinese role in trade, finance and manufacturing throughout the Balkans and Central Europe. This would then further strengthen China’s interest in developing the Black Sea region as a part of the China-Central ASIA-Europe trade corridor.

China’s focus points

The Chinese government engages with countries in the region  mostly on a bilateral basis rather than collectively. There exists a platform for cooperation between China and 16 countries of Central and East Europe (the so-called CEEC 16+1) that involves the Balkans region and that is strongly focused on OBOR, but most actual projects between China and Balkans countries are the outcome of bilateral interaction. A similar regional platform for engagement between the Black Sea region and China does not exist. The Organization of the Black Sea Economic Cooperation (BSEC) could potentially fill this gap, but the Chinese government has so far not yet made use of this platform to discuss OBOR multilaterally.

Notable focus points for Chinese companies and the Chinese government in the Balkans and Black Sea region are port management in Greece, infrastructure construction in the Western Balkans and Turkey, agricultural production in Ukraine and the energy sector in Romania and Greece.  In addition, Chinese companies  are also active in the region in telecommunication, manufacturing and banking.

Two key countries in the region are Greece and Serbia. Both countries were visited by President Xi Jinping in recent years. They provide China with footholds within the region from where it can build up its OBOR activities by way of a step-by-step approach. Progress is slow: the privatization of the port of Piraeus met with substantial delays until Cosco was able to acquire a majority share in the port in 2016. Currently the construction of a new railway track between Belgrade and Budapest is also being delayed as a result of concerns from the European Commission as to whether the agreement between Hungary and China follows EU government procurement rules. Under this agreement Chinese entities will finance and build the railway. The Chinese government and Chinese investors appear to be waiting until the so-called Land Sea Express Route (the transport corridor from Greece via the Western Balkans to Central Europe) has progressed further before engaging in major new OBOR projects in other parts of the Balkans.

With regard to the Black Sea region, the involvement of the Chinese government in OBOR projects is more limited than in the Balkans region. China seems to be cautious not to antagonize Russia and to be taking into account Russian geopolitical sensitivities in the Black Sea region. Given their location, both Georgia and Ukraine could potentially be close diplomatic partners and hosts to major China-funded infrastructure projects. However, they are also former Soviet republics that have strained relations with Russia. Judging from maps with projected railway links that circulate in China, the Chinese government seems to favour a transport corridor to Southeast Europe from China via Iran and Turkey rather than via Georgia or Ukraine. This suggests that China’s approach cannot be understood exclusively on the basis of economic factors: geopolitical considerations should also be taken into account.

Seizing the initiative

In terms of geography, the potential of the Balkans and Black Sea region is promising but the Chinese government and Chinese investors seem hesitant to commit to major projects in the region apart from the current flagship projects in Greece (Piraeus port) and Serbia (railway to Hungary). To realize this potential, local governments, regional organizations and the private sector could take the initiative. The new silk road is being shaped not only by China but also by non-Chinese actors. By investing in infrastructure and facilitating east-west (across the Black Sea) and north-south (across the Balkans) corridors, regional actors can enhance their role in OBOR and stimulate engagement by China.

Geopolitical implications

The new silk road will increase China’s influence in the region. This could further complicate the unstable relationship between Russia and the West. In the longer run, Sino-US and/or Sino-Russian geopolitical competition could destabilize the region. However, China is careful to avoid this outcome, and its growing influence also provides new opportunities for Russia, the EU and the US to work with China towards regional stability. The formula used to stabilize Sino-Russian relations in Central Asia, by way of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, could provide a starting point for a joint mechanism for the Black Sea region that involves regional countries as well as Russia, NATO and China.

The European Union needs to signal clearly that it favours regional development and that it is open to cooperating with China to this end. If OBOR can contribute to the economic development of the Balkans and Black Sea Region then the EU should take an active approach that seeks to maximize this contribution within its strategic interests. There is a danger that countries in Southeast Europe and around the Black Sea, whether they are EU member states or not, will increasingly feel that their interests are ignored as a result of geopolitical and economic competition between China and the EU as a whole, and between China and Western Europe in particular. If these sentiments are not adequately addressed the EU’s south-eastern flank will be vulnerable to destabilizing forces such as great power competition and conflict in the Middle East.

Dr. Frans-Paul van der Putten (Senior research fellow, Clingendael Institute)
Speaker at Session VI, Maritime-Transportations-Infrastructures & HUBs
The Hague, The Netherlands, 15/6/2017